The original Xbox console had a lifespan of about four years, launching in 2001 and then being retired in 2005 following the launch of the Xbox 360. It had a great run, birthing such franchises as Halo, Forza Motorsport and Fable, and it introduced the almighty Xbox Live in 2002. Fast-forward to the present day and we have the Xbox 360 with a whole slew of hit games and the upgraded Xbox Live experience. On the flipside, there’s the PlayStation 2 followed by the PlayStation 3, each with their own major titles and online services. The PS2 ran its course in nearly six years. With that in mind, is it still too early to start thinking about the next generation? After all, it’s been four years since the release of the Xbox 360. Is an upgrade really necessary? The fact of the matter is, this generation will outlast any previous one, and by a good margin.
Technology is a double-edged sword. As it improves, there’s an increased need to upgrade. However, improved technology can also increase the lifespan of a product. Take gaming consoles for example. The Xbox lasted four years. We’re going to see its successor outlast it significantly for a number of different reasons, the first of which being improved hardware. Developers are still finding new ways to squeeze every last pixel from the system.
On the other side of the spectrum, we have PC gaming. PC gamers are of a different breed. They are the hardcore, and they know that they are superior to console gamers. They don’t buy a console every X number of years. PC gamers are buying news graphics card, new sound cards, new processors, new RAM – they are always upgrading their systems. PC gaming is more flexible than console gaming. You can’t go out and by a new processor for your PlayStation 3. Instead, consoles take all of the innovations PCs have made over the years and throw them together every 4-6 years, but that 4-6 year window is starting to increase.
Things are becoming more software-driven, and the Internet plays a huge part in this. Last year we saw the Xbox 360 undergo a major transformation, and all it required was a connection to the Internet and a little software update. If Microsoft wanted to make such a change in the Xbox era, it wouldn’t be nearly as easy, if even possible. A connection to the Internet allows developers to hotfix bugs, add new features, or in Microsoft’s case, completely overhaul a system. The Xbox 360’s lifespan was extended hugely through that dashboard update.
Look at Sony with the PS3. They want to add 3D gaming to the system by 2010 via a simple firmware update. 3D gaming. That’s a massive feature to be adding to a console post-launch. Xbox 360 will also be getting new functionality through Microsoft’s Project Natal, which is expected to be releasing sometime in 2010 as well. Project Natal enables users to control and interact with the Xbox 360 without the need to touch a controller. Not only does it open the console up to a whole new range of possibilities, but it expands the Xbox 360's audience.
When asked if the introduction of Project Natal would extend the time before the next-generation console platform is launched, Microsoft corporate VP Shane Kim reaffirmed that the company believes that the lifecycle of the Xbox 360 will last through 2015. That’s a 10-year lifecycle, or nearly double the usual lifecycles of consoles. If that is really the case, then the Xbox 360 will just be reaching its peak when Natal launches. Back in 2006, Sony CEO Kaz Hirai also stated that consumers should expect the PS3’s lifecycle to last 10 years.
Can a gaming console really last 10 years with circa 2005-hardware though? Frankly, I think the answer is no. Even with all the cool new software features being thrown into the systems, the real heart of the matter is sheer horsepower. Already many games are watered down when compared to their PC counterparts. The Xbox 360 only has 512MB of GDDR3 memory, and while the processor is still solid now, it won’t be long before it starts to show its age. Remember Moore’s Law? This is where the adaptability of PC gaming comes into play. PC gamers won’t have to wait 10 years to play next-gen games while console gamers will have to wait for a system with more juice or play watered down versions of games on older hardware.
It’s unclear whether a 10-year lifecycle is reasonable or not for a gaming console because we don’t know where technology will take us, but from what we’ve seen, it’s safe to say that there’s still room for improvement in games – improvement that can’t be reached without faster processors, bigger memory, and better GPUs. So, will we really be waiting until 2015 for the next Xbox or 2016 for a PS4? If the industry bigwigs stick to their guns, then yeah, we will. The question then is, will console gaming fall even further behind?
I definitely agree that this generation will be much longer than previous ones, however, when Sony/Microsoft says they have a 10 year lifecycle plan for the PS3/360, it doesn’t necessarily mean that both consoles will be on the market for 10 years before new consoles are released… I mean, just look at the PS2. The PS2 has been on the market for like 9 years in addition to the PS3, so obviously it’s not going to be until 2015/2016 before the PS4 comes out.
With the PS1 and PS2, Sony has shown that they can support a console for 9-10 years… but right now I’m skeptical that Microsoft will be able to support the 360 for 10 years in addition to a new Xbox console at the same time like Sony has done with their consoles.
Sony has a strong first party and second party foundation, and that’s what allowed them to support 3 platforms at the same time and honestly I think Microsoft needs to work on actually building a stronger first party so that they’ll be able to properly support both the 360 and the next Xbox at the same time, because we definitely won’t be waiting until 2015 for the next Xbox, and if Microsoft wants the 360 to last 10 years, a stronger first party is a must.
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Tyler Treat Reply:
November 22nd, 2009 at 1:52 AM
You make some very good points there.
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What they really mean by a 10 year cycle is support for 10 years. They don’t mean it will be 10 years before we see a new Xbox or a new Playstation. The original Playstation and the PS2 both had lasting power mainly due to the huge install base. So it was possible to introduce new hardware after 6 years and still support the old hardware. Nintendo and Microsoft both got squeezed out by the Playstation dominance.
However as we’ve seen this generation the competition has become much more fierce with the Wii jumping out of the gate rather quickly. However I don’t see that system having a long life-span. Not with its current hardware and Sony and Microsoft following suit with their own motion controls. So Nintendo will either offer a major upgrade soon or a whole new system within a couple of years IMO. Nintendo can also afford to introduce a whole new console. Sony and Microsoft however want this generation to last as long as possible and with the slowing economy it makes all the more sense.
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Uhm, the PS2 is still going strong. Games and systems are still being sold to this day. Any fool who bought the original Xbox got screwed when they stopped making systems and games after a mere 4 years.
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I bought an Xbox and never felt screwed. Halo, Forza, Fable, Star Wars KOTR, Ninja Gaiden and Splinter Cell and many other games plus Live gave me countless hours of fun. I guess only fools enjoy all game systems. I also had a Dreamcast so does the old saying fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me apply? Oh well, I guess I really do feel shame, just like the goalie from Slap Shot.
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Graphics aren’t everything my friend. Just look at the Wii with its 2001(GC) technology and fancy motion sensing controller kicking the asses of every console… In my opinion graphics are fine the way they are now, what I want now is innovation, something graphics alone can’t provide.
And PC gaming and console gaming aren’t the same either. PC gaming is stuck with constant upgrades and same gameplay while console gaming it’s expanding to be something else. For example, Project Natal, Sony Motion sensing controller… You’re not in front of a monitor but in front of a huge HDtv. PC gaming it’s all about FPS and MMO while console gaming cater to more varied games and constant releases of new games which some of them are ported to PC, like for example Halo, Gears of War, etc. But where in hell could I find games like God of War, Uncharted and Mario on PC? Nowhere.
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nice article
the problem with consoles long life span is PC gaming, when the PS2 was on it final glory days with game like manhunt 2 or final fantasy 12, PC already had next gen games like oblivion and half life 2
xbox360 already reached its limit (not how neither splinter cell conviction or alan wake look better than Gears of War 2) and PS3 I suspect is around 2 years from its tech limit, and that’s way sooner than new consoles are expected, so PC will have its time to shine while console new games will become outdated
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That’s like saying where can you find games like Total War and World of Warcraft on the consoles. Those games you listed are from 1st party devs so of course they won’t be on the PC. The PC can also replicate motion controls and peripherals like steering wheels. You can use a Xbox 360 controller on the PC as well.
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I realized I used the term lifecycle a bit loosely in this article. I didn’t mean the PS2 was officially “done” when the PS3 launched, definitely not. Heck, the PS2 just launched in Brazil recently. Apologies for that.
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Well, lets begin with: Cut the crap about PC Gamers being ’superior’. They are only gamers, just like console gamers. If spending more on upgrades means you’re ’superior’, then talk about supremacy with the llunatis that bough the PS3 back in the launch time, plus games, plus peripherals and all the she-bang.
Some of other points are interesting, but all this Bull**** about Console gaming, wich by the way is what keeps the gaming market aflow (thanks to the heavy PC piracy to that!), being behind just trows away whatever credibility it may have had.
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Tyler Treat Reply:
November 22nd, 2009 at 6:21 PM
First off, I didn’t say that PC gamers ARE superior to console gamers, but they sure as hell think they are. That’s undeniable.
Second, I don’t know what you’re referring to when you say “bull**** about console gaming.” It would be nice if you could clarify what you mean because that doesn’t fly as an argument in a debate. Back up your argument with some facts or at least don’t make an ambiguous statement.
Third, how do consoles keep the gaming market afloat? PC and console gaming are in their own domains for the most part, but the only reason console gaming makes advancements is due to innovations in PC technology. With that logic, PC technology is what keeps the console market afloat.
You do realize that many analysts believe that console gaming is in trouble, right?
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[...] 6.) The Lifecycle of a Gaming Console on Brave New Gamer. [...]
[...] again confirming that the Xbox 360's lifecycle is longer than we expected is David Hufford, senior director of Xbox product management. According [...]